Warehouse fresh · 2026-07-02 08:24 UTC
Model R̂ max 1.000
ESS min 1501
Divergences 0
Trained 2026-07-02 08:51 UTC

2026 League Predictions

Hierarchical Bayesian team-strength model, updated daily. Each row shows the team's current record, projected final win total, 80% credible interval from 10,000 Monte Carlo seasons, and the probability of winning the division or making the playoffs.

ALAmerican League

Projected final standings · 2026 regular season

AL West

Team Record Proj W 80% CI Division Winner Playoffs
TEX Texas Rangers 44-43 83 77–89
50.7%
69.5%
SEA Seattle Mariners 44-43 82 76–87
35.0%
58.5%
HOU Houston Astros 43-46 78 72–83
9.0%
24.0%
ATH Athletics 41-46 76 70–81
5.0%
13.3%
LAA Los Angeles Angels 36-51 69 64–75
0.2%
0.7%

AL East

Team Record Proj W 80% CI Division Winner Playoffs
TB Tampa Bay Rays 50-33 93 87–98
71.4%
99.3%
NYY New York Yankees 48-38 89 83–94
28.2%
95.9%
TOR Toronto Blue Jays 41-46 78 72–84
0.3%
23.9%
BOS Boston Red Sox 37-48 77 71–82
0.2%
20.3%
BAL Baltimore Orioles 40-48 74 68–79
0.0%
7.0%

AL Central

Team Record Proj W 80% CI Division Winner Playoffs
CLE Cleveland Guardians 45-42 84 79–90
47.1%
82.2%
CWS Chicago White Sox 45-40 84 79–90
46.7%
76.1%
DET Detroit Tigers 37-49 77 71–82
3.7%
18.1%
MIN Minnesota Twins 42-46 76 70–81
2.5%
11.1%
KC Kansas City Royals 35-52 67 61–72
0.0%
0.1%

NLNational League

Projected final standings · 2026 regular season

NL West

Team Record Proj W 80% CI Division Winner Playoffs
LAD Los Angeles Dodgers 56-31 101 96–106
99.9%
100.0%
AZ Arizona Diamondbacks 43-43 81 76–87
0.1%
20.0%
SD San Diego Padres 43-42 80 74–85
0.0%
11.2%
SF San Francisco Giants 36-50 74 69–80
0.0%
0.8%
COL Colorado Rockies 34-53 63 58–69
0.0%
0.0%

NL East

Team Record Proj W 80% CI Division Winner Playoffs
ATL Atlanta Braves 50-34 91 86–97
54.6%
90.9%
PHI Philadelphia Phillies 49-38 90 84–95
36.2%
85.1%
MIA Miami Marlins 46-41 85 79–90
7.4%
43.1%
WSH Washington Nationals 45-43 82 76–87
1.8%
20.6%
NYM New York Mets 36-51 70 65–76
0.0%
0.1%

NL Central

Team Record Proj W 80% CI Division Winner Playoffs
MIL Milwaukee Brewers 53-31 100 94–105
89.2%
99.9%
CHC Chicago Cubs 49-38 91 86–97
10.5%
93.7%
STL St. Louis Cardinals 44-38 82 76–87
0.2%
19.1%
PIT Pittsburgh Pirates 43-44 81 75–86
0.1%
15.2%
CIN Cincinnati Reds 39-46 73 68–79
0.0%
0.4%